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中南大学学报(社会科学版)
ZHONGNAN DAXUE XUEBAO(SHEHUI KEXUE BAN)

2011年04月第17卷第2期
   
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文章编号:1672-3104(2011)02-0118-06
 
湖南省承接产业转移与产业结构优化的
理论及实证研究
 
李斌,陈超凡,万大艳
 
(湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙,410079)
 
摘  要: 回顾了湖南省承接产业转移和其产业结构演变的现状,并从理论上分析了承接产业转移对产业结构的影响效应。通过建立四个时序计量模型,检验理论分析变量与湖南省产业结构优化的联系。研究结果表明,人力资本、劳动生产率提高对产业结构优化有显著正向影响,产业集群对结构优化效应并不显著,而就业规模则与湖南产业升级成负相关。最后对FDI与产业结构进行Granger检验,发现FDI与湖南省产业结构优化之间并无直接因果关联。
 
关键词: 产业承接;产业结构优化;产业转移效应;时间序列模型;Granger检验
 
 
Hunan Provincial undertaking industrial transfer and

industrial structure optimization theory and an empirical research

 
LI Bin, CHEN Chaofan, WAN Dayan
 
(School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha 410079, China)
 
Abstract: Reviewing the Hunan Provincial undertaking industrial transfer achievements, and its current status of the evolution of industry structure and theoretical analysis of undertaking industrial transfer on the effects of the industrial structure, this paper established four sequential measurement models to test theory analysis of variables and the optimization of industrial structure in Hunan Province. The results show that human capital and labour productivity in industry structure has a significant positive impact on the industry cluster effects which those on optimizing the structure is not significant, and employment scale and Hunan industrial upgrade into a negative correlation. Finally, with FDI and industrial structure for inspection, the authors found that FDI Granger and Hunan industrial structure evolution are no direct causal associations.
 
Key words: Hunan industry to undertake; industrial structure; theoretical analysis; empirical study; granger inspection
 
 
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